How has COVID-19 changed private car use in European urban areas? An analysis of the effect of socio-economic characteristics and mobility habits.

The private car has been identified as the main winner among transport modes in urban areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. The fear of contagion when using public transport or the decrease in road congestion are likely to have induced changes in citizens' travel habits with respect to cars. This work investigates the impact of the pandemic on individuals' habits and preferences regarding their car ownership levels and car usage in the European urban context, with a special focus on the role played by individual socio-demographics and urban mobility patterns. For this purpose, a Path Analysis approach has been adopted to model car ownership and use before and after COVID-19. The main data source employed in this research is an EU-Wide Urban Mobility Survey that collects detailed information (individual and household socio-economic characteristics, built environment attributes and mobility habits) of 10,152 individuals from a total of 21 European urban areas of different sizes, geographical locations, and urban forms. The survey data has been complemented with city-level variables that account for differences across the cities that may explain changes in car-related behaviour. The results show that the pandemic has induced an increase in car use among socio-economic groups that are generally associated with low car-dependent behaviour, revealing that policy instruments that discourage the use of the private car in urban areas are needed to avoid reversing past trends in the reduction of urban transport emissions. High-income, well-educated teleworkers are observed to be the ones that have reduced their car use to a larger extent. On the contrary, low-income individuals are mostly maintaining similar levels of car mobility. Finally, frequent public transport users are more likely than occasional users to have substituted this mode by the private car.

Car Ownership and Post-COVID Urban Mobility across European Cities

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected households' mobility habits and choices in the past two years. Scarce evidence is available concerning medium term decisions such as the purchase or sale of a private vehicle. This work aims to explore the factors that have influenced households' decisions to buy or sell a private car due to the pandemic and foresee how these decisions might influence their travel behaviour in the next few years. To achieve this goal, an EU-wide survey gathering information from 21 European cities was carried out during the second term of 2021, when lockdowns were no longer in place, but some mobility and sanitary restrictions were still maintained. The survey focuses on the impact of the pandemic and the consequent mobility restrictions on the transport habits and preferences of the respondents. The questionnaire collected socio-economic characteristics and mobility habits of 10,152 individuals. Interestingly, the analysis of the survey does not provide any evidence of a reduction of motorization rates for teleworkers. On the contrary, both partial and full-time teleworkers have bought significantly more cars than the rest of the groups. These findings greatly contrast with the fact that changes in daily habits resulting from the adoption of teleworking regimes are the main cause of reductions in car use among car buyers. This result suggests that further incentives for car ownership reduction are needed to harness the full potential of teleworking for decreasing car dependency. A positive relation between number of cars owned before COVID and car purchases has been found, pointing out that these purchases are probably not solving accessibility limitations for car-less households. Finally, a positive relation is also observed between car purchases and increased use of shared mobility services.

Evolution of teleworking and urban mobility changes driven by the COVID-19 pandemic across European Cities

Work-related travel is one of the primary travel purposes for citizens (Eurostat, 2021). The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant changes in lifestyles and mobility that may persist in the long term. Teleworking and online shopping are much more widely adopted than before the pandemic crisis, while active mobility modes have gained a considerable share of urban transport activity. Restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have shown that several activities developed within the city can be done by ICT tools, such as working from home or shopping online, among others. Those tools can be used to avoid -potentially- unnecessary trips and consequently reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. This work aims to determine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the adoption of teleworking and how mobility behaviour has changed during the pandemic. It also explores the factors that may affect mobility changes, their long-term effects and potential repercussion on GHG emissions. To do so, we use an extensive survey carried out in 20 European cities across 11 Member States, applying statistical inference analysis among different categories of variables focusing on active workers. Results show that teleworking has grown significantly during the pandemic, both in the number of users and in the frequency of use. The change in mobility patterns has been significant and might serve as a lever for change towards a more sustainable mobility, but also for the worse if the right decisions are not made consequently.

Survey on urban transport in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak: Data from 20 cities across Europe.

This dataset contains the full results of a survey on mobility patterns after the Covid-19 pandemic. The survey was conducted in the second trimester of 2021 and collected information from 10000 respondents across 20 urban areas. The questions covered demographic and socio-economic characteristics, employment and job related situation, the use of technological alternatives in daily activities, mobility patterns (trip frequency, purpose, destination, mode, level of comfort), and perceptions as regards the usability of each transport option. Particular emphasis was given to the comparison of current activity to that before the pandemic. The survey combined an online (Computer-Assisted Web Interviews, CAWI) approach with telephone (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews, CATI) interviews. The sample in each city was representative of the local demographic and socio-economic profile according to age, sex, employment situation, education and urbanization.

Challenges for urban transport policy after the Covid-19 pandemic: Main findings from a survey in 20 European cities.

This article explores the changes in transport and mobility patterns that were triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as citizens' potential new expectations arising from this situation regarding public transport policy and urban planning. We conducted an extensive survey in 20 cities across 11 European countries during the second quarter of 2021, with a total of 10000 respondents. The information that we collected covered the change in the frequency of technology-based alternatives to travel -such as teleworking and online shopping-compared to the pre-pandemic period. It also included the change in trip frequency, purpose, mode and destination. Using the survey dataset as input, we applied a classification model that explains the change in mode choice based on the respondent characteristics and preferences. Our findings suggest that the changes in mobility patterns induced by the pandemic are the result of the combination of the degree of mobility restrictions imposed in each city, the adoption of new lifestyle and work patterns, and individual choices that depend on personal risk aversion. We identify three main challenges for urban transport policy: the increasing use of car that can reinforce long-term car dependency, the avoidance of public transport that may lead to financial and operational instability, and the uncertainty as regards the future of innovation in urban transport, especially as regards emerging technologies and business models.

Regional mobility during the Covid-19 pandemic: Analysis of trends and repercussions using mobile phones data across the EU.

The analysis of mobile phones data at regional level in the EU reveals varying patterns in mobility trends during the Covid-19 pandemic. These depend on the temporal evolution of the pandemic in each EU Member State, the measures taken at local or national level to limit the growth of the pandemic, as well as the level of urbanization and type of economic activity in each region. During the first phase of the pandemic (March- April 2020) the decrease in mobility was in general uniform among regions in the same Member State, especially in Italy, Spain and France, where national level measures were adopted. A relaxation of the measures and a resulting rebound of mobility was evident during the summer period (July- August 2020). At the same time, a shift from urban to rural areas during the summer vacation period is evident, with especially touristic areas increasing the number of movements in the same Member State. The variance in mobility trends during the second wave of the pandemic (October- November 2020) was higher, a result of the predominantly local and regional level measures applied in each Member State. Those insights suggest a certain correlation between the level of mobility and the evolution of the pandemic at regional level. The association with high levels of Covid-19 prevalence is particularly strong in urban regions with high mobility levels.

Teleworking and Online Shopping: Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Their Impact on Transport Demand

Teleworking and online shopping became commonplace during the COVID-19 pandemic and can be expected to maintain a strong presence in the foreseeable future. They can lead to significant changes in mobility patterns and transport demand. It is still unclear, however, how extensive their adoption can be, since each individual has different preferences or constraints. The overall impact on transport depends on which segments of the population will modify their behaviour and on what the substitutes to the current patterns will be. The purpose of this work is to identify the user profiles and spatial aspects that affect the adoption of teleworking and online shopping, and to explore the potential impact on transport demand. To that end, data from an EU-wide survey on mobility were analysed using a Machine Learning methodology. The results suggest that while the take up of the new work and consumption patterns is high on average, there are significant differences among countries and across different socio-economic profiles. Teleworking appears to have a high potential mainly in certain services sectors, affecting commuting patterns predominantly in large urban areas. Online shopping activity is more uniform across the population, although differences among countries and age groups may still be relevant. The findings of this work can be useful for the analysis of policies to encourage the uptake of new technologies in transport and mobility. They can be also a good reference point for future studies on the ex-post analysis of the impacts of the pandemic on mobility.

Government support to airlines in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper assesses government support measures to the air transport sector following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic from two points of view. First, it explores the factors that shape governments' willingness to support airlines. This is followed by a discussion on the various types of support that may be provided and how country-specific parameters influence the choice of measures. Second, it analyses the implications of government support in three dimensions relevant to air transport policy: competition and liberalisation, airline ownership and control, and environmental sustainability. The analysis suggests that most governments give a high priority to maintaining air transport connectivity in order to protect economic activity and jobs, in aviation itself and in related sectors such as tourism. The trade-off between ensuring connectivity and maintaining competition after the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge with several political and economic dimensions. The re-orientation of public policy in the aftermath of the pandemic may limit the relative importance of the policy priorities that shaped the evolution of the air transport sector before the crisis, especially those related to climate change and the environment. The role of government and public authorities at all levels - especially the type and duration of measures affecting transport operations - will be crucial for the future development of the aviation industry.

The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns During the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness

<p>Air travel has a decisive role in the spread of infectious diseases at the global level. We present a methodology applied during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic that uses detailed aviation data at the final destination level in order to measure the risk of the disease spreading outside China. The approach proved to be successful in terms of identifying countries with a high risk of infected travellers and as a tool to monitor the evolution of the pandemic in different countries. The high number of undetected or asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, however, limits the capacity of the approach to model the full dynamics. As a result, the risk for countries with a low number of passengers from Hubei province appeared as low. Globalization and international aviation connectivity allow travel times that are much shorter than the incubation period of infectious diseases, a fact that raises the question of how to react in a potential new pandemic.</p>